Outer Banks Season 3 Predictions

What do I think the teen-drama will hold in its new season?


Outer Banks: you either love it or hate it. I’m part of this Netflix Original’s small but devoted fan base here at Magnet and so, needless to say, I was excited when I found out that a new season was coming out February 23. Filmed in Charleston, it covers a wide variety of serious themes and topics in an artful manner, using skillful storytelling and out-of-this-world acting. It’s always difficult to tell what twists and turns the plot is leading you down, and so I decided that it would be fun to try and make possible predictions for the new third season of Outer Banks! There will be severe spoilers for Seasons 1 and 2 ahead, so take that into consideration before continuing on.


While the idea of Poguelandia has been pretty widely advertised in the promotion for season 3, I anticipate that they won’t stay on the island long. I’d guess about one episode. There isn’t really enough conflict or tension within the actual group of pogues for any real time to be spent focusing on them there. I think that we’ll get some scenes of them fooling around, swimming, trying to find food, and light a campfire, and then conflict over how to get rescued before they’re randomly saved in the luckiest way possible. At least that’s what I hope because I think the name and idea of  Poguelandia is so corny I couldn’t make it through more than one episode of it, especially after the bizarre promotional music festival they threw in Huntington Beach. 

El Dorado… What??

First and foremost, this technically isn’t a prediction of mine. I saw this in an advertisement after I’d written the rest of this article, and was completely bewildered. I have no idea how or why they’ll be searching for the lost city of gold, however it definitely is in the treasure-hunting theme of the TV show. My prediction is that a link between the Royal Merchant and El Dorado will be uncovered, prompting them to explore more in hopes of finding the hidden riches, as per usual for the pogues.

Big John, Big Mystery

Big John, John B’s Dad

It’s revealed at the end of season 2 that Big John, John B’s dad, is actually alive and is working with Limbrey to find the shroud. This means that he likely survived and made it off the small island we originally thought he died on, but why wouldn’t he reveal himself to John B? Other than plot and the driving force of John B, I think that it will be revealed to us that Big John was caught up in something dangerous in which he’s indebted to somebody, potentially pirates or something similar, and it would be unsafe for him to return to OBX and find John B. It will probably be some situation that utilizes the cliché idea that it was safer for him to stay away, and when they’re reunited John B doesn’t understand and blames him.

I think that the dramatic irony of knowing Big John is alive while John B doesn’t know will be a major source of tension in season 3, and I predict that in the final 2 or 3 episodes they will be reunited during a tense, dangerous situation which will cut their emotional moment short. I’m not entirely sure of this, but it may be that during this conflict Ward kills Big John, in a parallel to the flashback scene where we originally thought Big John died. This would make the finale especially tragic and emotional.

Kiara’s Summer Camp Romance

Still from the trailer confirming JJ and Kiara are a thing in S3

In season 3, Kiara will be sent to a camp for troubled teens, I predict. In season 2, her parents threatened to send her to a camp called “Blue Ridge” if she sneaks out anymore, hangs out with the pogues, or lies to them anymore. Directly after this, she sneaks out to board the cargo ship with the Cross of Santo Domingo, where she then is stranded on the island they call Poguelandia. 

Personally I feel bad for her parents in this show, and needless to say, after she inevitably returns to OBX, her parents will be over her shenanigans. I don’t think she’ll get sent to a camp in the mountains though, because so many people watch OBX for the beach aesthetic, so I predict she’ll be sent to a coastally-located camp, probably one in the Charleston area.

When she’s there, I predict that JJ, as the impulsive, risk-taker, will try to bust her out. I predict there will be a big, dramatic chase scene on perhaps a stolen jet-ski and then a long chase on boardwalks in the dunes, until they inevitably get away. 

I also predict that at this point, the romance between Kiara and JJ that has been confirmed in the trailer will unfold in a kiss in the rec hall. After a high-stakes chase scene, this seems exactly what the writers of Outer Banks would use to alleviate the tension and completely change the tone, as they often do. I predict, in this scene, that Kiara will say something along the lines of how he risked his life to save her, because she always states the obvious, and he will show his soft side and say something corny. 

Demise of Rafe

Buzz-cut Rafe in Season 3 Poster

I predict that Rafe will die. I know that OBX doesn’t really handle main character death well, with them being resurrected and secretly alive and all, but I think that Rafe will die and be gone for good. I think that his death will be somehow related to his drug-use, anger and mental issues, where his lifestyle and past catch up to him and he dies a sudden death, most likely in front of Sarah Cameron to give make her conflicted. I also think this will be a major aspect of the finale, because a lot of season 3 will be depicting his spiraling mental descent which the start of was really made evident in season 2 at the wharf in the Bahamas. This is the scene when he tries to open up to Ward and show that he needs psychiatric help but Ward tells him to “man up” because the cops are watching, and Rafe crying looks suspicious. He’s also shown with a buzz cut in posters for season 3, which may be an intentional costume choice to make him seem more deranged and dangerous, however that’s just speculation based on stereotype. 

Limbrey and Big John duo?

For context, Limbrey is the sick woman from Charleston who was seeking the Cross of Santo Domingo in hopes that it would heal her. In season 2, she hinted to Renfield, her half-brother, that she doesn’t have much time left before she dies, but, despite this, I don’t think that she’s going to die yet. If she did die, her death wouldn’t be very impactful because we still don’t know her character fully and her arc with the cross doesn’t feel near complete. 

I think that in season 3, we’ll see her more with Big John, likely working together to get the gold and the cross back from Ward, because they were both blindsided by him in the past. Maybe this pair will even come to work together with the pogues, especially since Big John wants Limbrey to help John B. It may be at this point that John B and his dad are reunited. 

Wheezie Comeback

I think that Wheezie, Sarah Cameron’s little sister, will become a much bigger character. For the past two seasons, her role has been small and mostly insignificant, really only coming into play when it’s convenient. As Sarah’s only “ally” in her deceptive, violent, and betraying family, I think we’ll see her play a much bigger role in season 3. 

This could be seen in her helping Sarah, but I think that, in a break from her typical character, she’ll channel her frustration from being not told anything and anger at her family for betraying Sarah by rebelling in the form of partying or sneaking out. 


“Mando” the pirate and Mary Blake

Fellow staff writer Mary Blake clued me into an unexpected plot point in season 3: pirates. Her close friend Armando told her that he’s cast as a pirate. I predict that perhaps this ties into the Poguelandia plot, maybe the group is rescued by pirates from the island, and they’re in service to them for a period of time until they can get away and back to OBX?