We are officially less than one year away from Election Day 2026 and polls are beginning to show trends on how voters might cast their ballot next year. Two key surveys reveal trends about the gubernatorial election, while data from House districts displays what to look out for in those elections.
No clear leader yet, with many still undecided
Currently 5 Republicans have tossed their hat in the ring to become the GOP nominee for governor. Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), elected in 2011 and serving his fourth term as South Carolina’s top prosecutor. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette (R), currently serving under Henry McMaster who is ineligible to run due to term limits. House Representatives Nancy Mace (R) and Ralph Norman (R), as well as state Representative Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg). Polls done by Winthrop University (Mrs. Frazier’s alma mater!), Wick, and the Trafalgar Group have shown consistently mixed results.
The latest poll from Wick showed Wilson leading with 22.2% of respondents stating that if the Republican primary for governor were held today, they would cast their vote for the Wilson. In polls conducted by Winthrop in October Wilson was tied with Norman, with both falling behind as Mace and Evette were tied for first place with 18% of respondents indicating that if the GOP primary were held today they would cast their vote for Evette or Mace.
However, it is important to note that polls possess a margin of error, and each of the polls conducted represented only a small sample of the 3.4 million registered voters in South Carolina. The majority of voters still remain undecided. The primary is still anyone’s game with the key factor coming from Washington.
What a Trump endorsement means for this race
Each candidate is vying for the much-coveted Donald Trump endorsement. In 2018, Trump endorsed Henry McMaster in his race for governor during the GOP gubernatorial primaries, an action which paid off with McMaster defeating Democratic candidate James Smith in the general election. An endorsement would likely catapult an aspiring candidate out of the primaries and as the GOP nominee.
Trump’s endorsement is currently anyone’s game, but the chances could lean in favor of Ralph Norman. Norman has aligned himself the most consistently with the president throughout his first and second tenure as president. Nancy Mace, previously endorsed by Trump in her congressional races, has begun to distance herself from the party citing disagreements with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), as well as frustrations with congressional proceedings in general. Kimbrell’s status as an unknown could work against him, with a greater chance falling between Norman, Wilson, and Evette.
