State-level legislative and gubernatorial elections were only scheduled for Virginia and New Jersey this Election Day, but these results (and others around the country) can still tell us much about changes in the political landscape, and how different parties and voting blocs will act in the future. It’s important to investigate what was notable about the results of this Election Day, because the results will certainly affect future political behavior.
First, let’s review what happened on November 4th. In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the governor’s office. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the gubernatorial race, and Virginia Democrats went from a slim majority to a supermajority in the Virginia House of Delegates. In New York City, Democrat nominee Zohran Mamdani defeated Democrat-running-as-Independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa in the city’s mayoral race, and in California, an amendment to the California State Constitution, Proposition 50, was passed by voters with nearly ⅔ of the total vote. In Pennsylvania, 3 progressive judges retained their seats on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. While, on the surface, this might seem like an all-around win for the Democratic Party, the reality is much more complicated. This Election day taught several important lessons about how future political battles will be fought.
A Political Identity Crisis
New York City’s mayoral race was never going to be about Democrats fighting Republicans. Curtis Sliwa was, if anything, breaking with the rest of the Republican party by remaining in the running. The contest was between Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist who won in an upset at the Democratic Primary, and Andrew Cuomo, the primary’s runner-up, an establishment Democrat and former New York governor who resigned in 2021 after allegations of sexual misconduct. Cuomo has served in other governmental roles at the national and state level, and his father was Governor of New York before him. Mamdani, meanwhile, had been elected to the New York State Assembly in 2020 but was basically unknown to those outside of his district before the race.
Zohran conducted an involved boots-on-the-ground campaign that saw him rise in popularity quickly, promising to implement progressive economic policies like free buses, universal childcare, and a freeze on rent in rent-stabilized housing units. After his win in the primary, candidates and party operatives for both the Democrats and Republicans began to collaborate and strategize to prevent Mamdani from winning the election. In a charge led by Jim Walden, candidates dropped out of the race to prevent the vote from being split between multiple anti-Mamdani candidates. Soon, Andrew Cuomo emerged as the main opposition to Mamdani, but, despite an 11th-hour endorsement from Donald Trump, lost to Mamdani, who won not just a plurality but a majority of the vote.
The NYC race was a proxy battleground between the Democratic political establishment and a rising left-wing populist movement, and, despite the opposition of the mainstream Democratic party and Republican party briefly uniting against it, left-wing populism won. Mamdani will join the ranks of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as Democratic Socialists who have managed to garner enough support from the Democratic base to become mainstream political figures.
Of course, the gubernatorial races weren’t as intriguing in this regard. Both Sherrill and Spanberger are moderate Democrats, and their electoral victories were praised by centrist outlets in the light of Mamdani’s leftist victory. Even still, Mamdani still signals a conflict within the Democratic Party between its moderate establishment and an increasingly popular left wing.
Economic Anxiety is (Still) King
These pre-midterm races are important indicators of what currently motivates voters to vote, and what issues will define the midterms. And, like it has been for years, economic security is still a top issue. Virginia is particularly notable; it has the third-highest proportion of federal workers of any state, and its proximity to Washington, DC makes the capital’s goings-on particularly pertinent to Virginians. The government shutdown and preceding federal layoffs worsened many Virginian’s economic anxieties, and a great portion of Spanberger’s 15-point margin of victory was motivated by federal budget cuts’ and layoffs’ financial impacts.
Of course, given Virginia’s proximity to the capital, this effect may be exaggerated. However, economic anxiety was an issue in the other races as well. According to CNN exit polls, New Jerseyans were also very concerned about the state’s economy, and more likely to say their financial situation was worsening than improving. Mamdani’s victory was overwhelmingly based on cost-of-living issues, and New Yorkers had similar views about the economy to the New Jerseyans. A consistent major issue throughout these elections were the economy, and, in particular, personal finances.
None of this is new, though. The economy was the largest issue for voters last year, and had been for several years before that. What’s changed is that, unlike 2024, the issue’s now helping Democrats now that a Republican is in the White House. Chances are, the two parties will keep passing the issue back and forth until some major reform or an economic crisis occurs. Until then, voters will continue to fret over their finances, and the balance of power will continue to swing back and forth because of it.
The Political Status Quo is Increasingly Unappealing
Among all this, there’s been a growing agitation with the Democratic and Republican status quo. Obviously, a Democratic Socialist’s win against an establishment Democrat is nothing to sneeze at, but, in a broader sense, more people are separating themselves from the two parties which dominate contemporary politics. Mamdani also had a substantial bloc of committed Democratic Socialists on his side. Across the nation, more and more people are identifying as political Independents rather than Democrats or Republicans.
Even within parties, political tensions are growing. Marjorie Taylor Greene, previously one of Trump’s staunchest supporters against Republican skeptics, has publicly traded barbs with him. After a group of Democratic Senators supported a Republican funding bill in return for relatively few concessions, many Democrats loudly blamed Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic Caucus’s leader, some calling for him to be ousted. Californian voters’ passing of Proposition 50, an amendment instating retaliatory political gerrymandering to counter Texas’ pro-Republican redistricting, was a rejection of the Democratic strategy of publicly taking the high ground of decorum over Republicans.
The midterms aren’t until next year, but political tensions are already coming to a head in this November’s elections. These races predict a lot about how the midterms will play out, but, in the end, only time will tell whether their portents come true.
