2025 Award Show Predictions

Who will win these awards?

Jack Serano and Henry Serano

October 23, 2025

As we approach awards show season, many Talon readers are wondering which to tune into and which to tune out. On September 14th, the Emmys aired, but the Grammys, Oscars, and Golden Globes have yet to air. So, without further ado, these are the Talon’s official predictions for upcoming awards shows.

Grammys:

The Grammys are the largest award show for music. They count all music released before August 30th each year for their awards, so they include a lot of music from 2024 in their nominations. Their main categories are Best Song, Best Album, and Best New Artist. For best song, I predict APT by Bruno Mars and Rose to win. It had an outstanding chart performance, but not the absolute best for the year. However, the Grammys historically like to choose underdog songs for song of the year, and they also prefer pop and rap over any other genre. They almost never pick genre-fusion songs, and the chart-dominating songs this year have all been pop-country mixes.

This is what makes “APT” such a strong contender. It blends the retro-funk sensibilities that Bruno Mars is famous for with the pop sensibilities of Rose, resulting in a track that feels both nostalgic and modern. The Grammys often reward songs that highlight craftsmanship and collaboration between artists who have proven themselves across multiple eras of music, and this track fits that mold perfectly. The song’s production, led by Mars himself, is sleek and radio-friendly, yet still maintains the kind of musicality that appeals to Grammy voters—especially those who favor artistry over pure commercial success.

Another element that strengthens “APT”’s case is its narrative. Mars has had a storied history with the Grammys, winning in various categories over the years. The Academy often gravitates toward artists who have a consistent presence at the ceremony, as their ongoing influence and reliability symbolize the kind of excellence the Grammys aim to represent. Beyond the statistics, “APT” also dominated social media for months, with countless clips of dance challenges, vocal covers, and live performances circulating online. It has both the critical respect and public appeal that often make for a Grammy-winning formula.

My backup pick is TV Off by Kendrick Lamar, since his iconic MUSTARD line has been a hilarious meme for the last whole year. Kendrick Lamar is no stranger to Grammy recognition, having taken home multiple awards across several years. “TV Off” represents another evolution in his artistry, combining humor, social commentary, and sharp lyricism in a way that only Kendrick can. The Grammys tend to value songs that start cultural conversations, and “TV Off” definitely did that. Whether people were laughing at the viral lyric or analyzing the deeper meaning behind the verses. It wouldn’t be surprising if Kendrick managed to snatch this award based on artistic merit alone, especially given the Grammys’ long-standing admiration for his creative risks and lyrical brilliance.

The next category is Best Album, and I predict the winner to be Hurry Up Tomorrow. This is because The Weeknd, the creator of Hurry Up Tomorrow, has been boycotting the Grammys for three years and is ending his boycott this year. I predict that the Grammys will want to welcome him back with a bang in fear of another boycott. The Weeknd’s complicated history with the Recording Academy has been one of the biggest industry conversations in recent memory. His decision to end his boycott marks a potential turning point not just for his relationship with the Grammys, but also for the credibility of the organization itself.

The Grammys often take these moments as opportunities to demonstrate goodwill, and awarding Hurry Up Tomorrow could serve as a symbolic gesture of reconciliation. Beyond politics, though, the album itself deserves recognition. It’s a richly produced and emotionally charged project that continues The Weeknd’s exploration of fame, heartbreak, and the human condition. Each track is cinematic, layered with synth-driven production that feels both futuristic and nostalgic. Critics praised the album’s ambition and cohesion, with many calling it his best work since After Hours. Given the combination of narrative redemption and artistic excellence, Hurry Up Tomorrow is an easy frontrunner.

My backup pick is GNX by Kendrick Lamar, simply because of how many Grammys Kendrick won last year. The momentum behind Kendrick is undeniable. The Grammys love consistency, and when an artist dominates one year, they often find themselves rewarded again the next. GNX pushes Kendrick’s artistry even further, showcasing his storytelling through layered production and deeply introspective lyrics. It feels like the kind of project that would appeal to both the voters who prioritize musical complexity and those who value cultural relevance.

The last category we will cover is Best New Artist. I have a lot of predictions for this one. My number one pick is Addison Rae. She really blew up this year in her music career, and I think she’s the type of artist that the Grammys really want to support, and the Grammys REALLY love giving artists a ton of praise after a breakout album from someone no one cared about beforehand. Addison’s rise from influencer to legitimate pop artist has been one of the biggest surprises of the year. Her debut album, filled with glossy production and infectious hooks, has exceeded expectations both critically and commercially.

What makes Addison such a likely winner is that she embodies the narrative of transformation that the Grammys love to celebrate: An underdog who proves her artistry and wins over skeptics. She’s also been highly visible in the media, appearing on talk shows, performing at festivals, and maintaining a huge online presence. The Grammys often consider cultural impact as much as musical output, and Addison’s widespread influence can’t be ignored.

Another prediction is Alex Warren, who had a similar random breakout album, but the Grammys typically don’t love pop-country (with the exception of Beyoncé last year), and I also don’t think Alex Warren has very many actual fans. His album, while catchy and emotionally honest, hasn’t quite captured the critical buzz that usually propels a Best New Artist nominee to victory. The category tends to favor artists with both critical and commercial pull, and while Alex has made progress in both areas, he may not yet be at the level of past winners.

My final prediction for this category is PinkPantheress. She probably will easily win if she gets nominated, but I’m not 100% sure they will accept her as a “new artist.” It’s true that the rules are loose when it comes to this category, with Doechii and Chappell Roan both being nominated last year despite having medium success before 2024, but I think that PinkPantheress’ song with Ice Spice, “Boy’s a Liar Part 2,” disqualifies her from being considered new. However, she did request a nomination for Best New Artist, and her latest album, Fancy That, has had the greatest commercial success in her whole career, so I think it’s possible that she gets nominated, and if she is nominated, I’m very confident that she will win.

The final thing I will say about this category is the common prediction of Sombr, who I really don’t think will win. It’s possible he gets nominated, but he checks none of the boxes for the type of artist that typically wins this award. Specifically, his debut album didn’t perform very well by Grammy standards. It was mostly overshadowed by his single “Back to Friends,” and it only sold 31 thousand in its first week. This isn’t bad, but usually, the winners for Best New Artist sell a lot more than that, and usually, the winners are better known for their albums than their singles.

For example, last year, Chappell Roan won Best New Artist, but it was a tough category. I’d say that Benson Boone was in the same position as Sombr is right now. He had two popular singles, and a relatively unsuccessful Grammy-bait album, but Chappell Roan won because of her massively popular and successful album, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess. In fact, Benson Boone’s album sold even better than Sombr’s did, and although Sombr doesn’t have as much competition this year, I have my doubts that it will be enough. It’s true that I could be wrong, though, since his album was suspiciously released eight days before the Grammy cutoff, but it’s hard for me to believe.

Golden Globes:

The Golden Globes, unlike the Oscars, are decided on by critics. This means, on average, that prestige film and television, rather than the wider selection that the Oscars pick from. Along with this, the Golden Globes only pick from two genre categories, where the Oscars pick from many. This means that these are very exclusive awards.

For the Best Motion Picture – Drama category, my pick is One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for three Golden Globes but has yet to snag any. One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Teyana Taylor, seems poised to end this streak. Anderson’s reputation as a meticulous filmmaker who blends emotional depth with cinematic mastery gives him an advantage. The film’s subject matter—rumored to focus on the psychological aftermath of war—appeals directly to the kind of emotional gravity that critics tend to favor.

My backup pick is Avatar: Fire and Ash. This may seem like an interesting choice, seeing as it hasn’t even been released yet, but I would argue it ultimately doesn’t matter how good the movie is for it to win this award. The Avatar films have never had the most provocative stories, and they mostly focus on the grandeur and beauty of the CGI. In that sense, I can’t see how this movie would disappoint. The Golden Globes have historically rewarded visual spectacle and innovation, and few franchises do that better than Avatar.

For the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy category, I predict that Bugonia will win. This category is more difficult to predict because many films that might be considered haven’t been released yet, such as Die, My Love and Jay Kelly. Bugonia is one of these, but it is extremely close to release. This means we have access to critic reviews, which often reflect on Golden Globes winners. It has 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, 7.5/10 on IMDb, and 3.9/5 on Letterboxd. This makes it one of the most critically acclaimed movies of the year.

My backup pick is Wicked: For Good. While I don’t think that Wicked: For Good is particularly likely to win, it’s one of the only top contenders for the award that we have an idea of its quality. This movie will likely be similar in quality as the first Wicked, meaning that it has a shot at a Golden Globe.

Oscars:

For Best Picture, I predict that Sinners will be the winner. This is because it was one of the biggest movies of the year, and general audiences fell in love with it. There are a lot of choices for this year’s Oscars, so it wasn’t an easy decision, but I feel that Sinners surpassed some of the “Oscar-bait” picks in its mass appeal and its stunning cinematography. For my backup pick, I’ll take One Battle After Another. I picked it for the Golden Globes, but I think it’s such a strong choice I’ll pick it again. Everything about this movie screams “Oscars.”

For Best Actor, my pick is Timothée Chalamet for his role in Marty Supreme. For the past few years, Chalamet has been extremely successful in PR and marketing, from appearing on college football broadcasts to Nardwuar interviews. Obviously though, the Oscars care first and foremost about his performance, and it definitely meets Oscars expectations. Next, my backup choice would be Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. For his entire career, Dwayne has played exactly one type of character. Now, Dwayne is expanding his acting portfolio and portraying MMA fighter Mark Kerr in an introspective, emotional movie. This is easily Dwayne’s best performance in his acting career, and I think the Oscars will be eager to award this performance.