With Survivor’s thirty-ninth season coming to a close on Wednesday, I thought I would analyze the remaining castaways’ gameplay and opine on who I think has the best odds to be the sole survivor and take home the $450,426 cash prize. (I’m informed Uncle Sam is the real winner here claiming the majority of the million dollar sum 🤣🤣😭)

“

I want to go on Survivor

— My dog

Dean

Dean the lean, mean, detective machine. Or, so he thinks. Dean has played a pretty conservative game this season, and I feel almost certain that he will make the final three, but will not be receiving any prize money. As much as he espoused Karishma was the goat of the season, he will likely be dragged to the finale by one of the true players in contention for the Survivor crown. Aside from being saved by Kellee on the final pre-merge vote by her immunity idol and forging a fake legacy idol from an already obviously fake legacy idol gifted to him by Jamal, he has done nothing to garner him jury votes. When given the opportunity to align with Noura, Elaine, and Karishma to vote out Tommy, he instead chose to betray his new alliance and send Karishma and Elaine out the door, thus causing him to loose allies and power at camp. However, if Dean uses his idol nullifier correctly at the next tribal, he can get Janet out and earn him some major clout with the jury, especially since he is the last original Lairo remaining. I think detective Dean, though, should use his sleuthing prowess to sniff out some good gameplay tactics rather than fake idols. Odds 20:1

Janet

Janet presents an interesting case in that she floats almost perfectly near the Survivor state of equanimity, balancing all aspects of her game. She is just powerful enough to be safe, yet not a treat. She is in the dominant alliance, but not a core member. She has made moves that could secure her the title of sole survivor, but she hasn’t done anything super memorable. If she can win immunity and get Lauren and Tommy out, she can definite win. Even if Dean or Noura win immunity at final four, I think Janet can win, as they would take her to finale night over Tommy or Lauren. We’ll just have to see what the Survivor gods have in store for her. Odds: 5:1

Lauren

Lauren has played a fantastic game this season by eliminating all threats to her advance towards finale night. Starting with Molly and most recently Elaine, Lauren played prominent roles in the eliminations of Kellee, Aaron, and Karishma. Masquerading as a harmless nanny, Lauren has ruled camp from the shadows, tactfully puppeteering dominant alliances throughout the game. She has put herself in a tricky situation, however, as the other remaining castaways are about to target her because she has become such a such a prominent threat to win the game. Hopefully she can keep Tommy on her tight leash to get rid of Janet before cutting him loose and securing the grand prize. Odds 2:1

Noura

Oh Noura. Volatile, wild card, Noura. I’m shocked she has made it to the final five, considering her erratic antics and paranoid gameplay. After the elimination of Karishma though, Noura secured herself a seat in the final three, as she and Dean remained as the final two goats to be dragged to finale night by either Janet, Lauren, or Tommy. It was lucky she found herself in the powerful Vokai alliance, as the other members protected her in favor of eliminating their Lairo enemies, like Aaron, Missy, Elizabeth, Elaine, and Karishma. I feel almost certain the Tommy, Lauren, and Janet trifecta will target each other, leaving Noura a clear road to the final tribal, ending with her receiving no votes from the jury. Odds 30:1

Tommy

Not to be confused with that of a Hilfiger variety, this ginger giant has played a rather dull game, as Lauren’s side piece and watchdog. Missy was right when she said Tommy and Lauren would become a powerhouse if allowed to enter the merge together, and they’ve managed to bring in and cut off allies in perfect rhythm. Tommy’s had a few more close calls than Lauren, as he was almost voted off on day 27 and 36, but was saved by his relationships with Lairo members. In terms of jury management, he is pretty well liked and would collect a substantial amount of votes over Noura and Dean, as they have no close ties to any of the jurors. I leave his odds at 10:1