With the College Football regular season over and Conference Championships being decided, it’s time for the start of Bowl Season and the College Football Playoff. Since the creation of the CFB Playoff, only four teams have been allowed into the exclusive tournament each year. But this year is instead the inaugural season of the 12-team College Football Playoff. This new postseason format will help grow the game by allowing more powerhouse programs like Oregon and Texas to battle it out and letting smaller Group of 5 teams have a chance at glory.
Now, the 12-team playoff is a bit misleading since just because a team might be ranked in the Top-12, doesn’t mean they get a spot in the tournament. Here’s how the bracket is made:
- The top five ranked (Top-25) conference champions get a playoff spot.
- The top four ranked (Top-25) conference champions get a first-round bye.
- The remaining spots are then filled by ranked non-conference champions.
On December 8th, the final CFB rankings were released by The Committee, creating the below bracket:
Conference Champs: #1 Oregon (Big 10), #2 Texas (SEC), #8 SMU (ACC), #10 Boise State (MWC), #15 ASU (Big 12)
At-Large Picks: #3 Penn State, #4 Notre Dame, #5 Georgia, #6 Ohio State, #7 Tennessee, #9 Indiana, #11 Alabama
Out Teams: #12 Miami, #13 Ole Miss, #14 South Carolina
Round 1: Tennessee vs. Ohio State
This game will be a close matchup between Nico Iamaleava’s Vols and Will Howards’ Buckeyes. Ohio State is coming off a tough 13-10 loss to rivals Michigan, but I think that will make them hungrier for this win. The Buckeyes’ biggest advantage will be the weather, as preliminary weather reports indicate weather near freezing at kickoff. It’ll be interesting to see how Tennessee adjusts to the weather at Ohio State since first-round games aren’t played at a neutral site.
Ohio State is currently favored at -7/-250 with the O/U at 46.5. However, this game is looking to be a low-scoring tossup.
Round 1: Clemson vs. Texas
This game will either be a blowout or very close. But, in both scenarios I see Clemson losing. Texas is a robust team despite what their record with Georgia this year would suggest. This game is make-or-break for Texas QB Quinn Ewers’ draft stock. Recently he hasn’t been performing to his first-round grade. On the other hand, a good performance here could catapult Clemson QB Cade Klubnik into a higher position in the draft. I think this will be the biggest game of the first round.
Texas is currently favored -10.5/-400 with the O/U at 52.5. Remember, good teams win, great teams cover. Texas is a good team, not a great one. The score of this game will be high, whether a blowout or not.
Round 1: Indiana vs. Notre Dame
Despite their outstanding record, Indiana is on fraud watch. Their schedule this year was extremely easy with it containing teams such as FIU, Western Illinois, Charlotte, and Purdue. Their one loss of the season came when they had to face real competition, which came in the form of a 38-15 blowout loss to Ohio State. Notre Dame on the other hand is the opposite. They’ve had a much harder schedule and had their one loss to a much worse school, Northern Illinois. Ever since that loss, they’ve been on a roll of blowing out teams, such as 66-7 vs. Purdue, 52-3 vs. FSU, 49-14 vs. Army, and 49-35 vs. Southern Cal. I think Notre Dame wins this game by two scores unless Coach Cignetti can work some magic.
Notre Dame is favored -7.5/-300 with the O/U at 53.5. Notre Dame will be scoring big in this relatively easy matchup, covering and going over.
Round 1: SMU vs. Penn State
Penn State is a much better football team than “Southern Methodist University.” Add the atmosphere of a Penn State Whiteout Game (which it is scheduled to be) in the new Playoff format and Penn State wins in a blowout. SMU stands little chance, especially after their brutal loss to Clemson.
Penn State is favored -8.5/-320 with the O/U at 53.5 as well. All three are looking good.
Semifinals: Ohio State vs. Oregon
With Ohio State barely sneaking out of Round 1, they’ll be sitting DUCKS for Oregon. Dillon Gabriel and Tez Johnson will cruise to victory in The Rose Bowl coming out of their Bye Week. This Oregon has been dominant all season, which is unlikely to change come playoff time. Although their regular season matchup was a one-point game, Ohio State is coming off a hard-fought and tiring game while Oregon is well-rested. But, Coach Dan Lanning will still have to make sure his Ducks stay sharp out of the bye.
35-27 Oregon.
Semifinals: Texas vs. ASU
This year’s Fiesta Bowl will be an interesting one. Lately, the Longhorns haven’t been playing at the top of their game, specifically QB Quinn Ewers. On the other hand, ASU has been on fire, specifically RB Cam Skattebo. This game will be fought in the trenches, but I think Texas will barely come out on top, severely weakening them for future games.
30-24 Texas.
Semifinals: Notre Dame vs. Georgia
The Sugar Bowl will be very one-sided, with Georgia likely dominating a much weaker Notre Dame team. Since this game will be played at a neutral site, the Fighting Irish sadly won’t have Touchdown Jesus to help them. I’d be pleasantly surprised if Notre Dame pulled off this massive upset.
35-13 Georgia.
Semifinals: Penn State vs. Boise State
This will be a tough-fought matchup against a much higher-rated Penn State team, but I think Boise State will find a way to come out on top. Penn State has a solid run defense, allowing just over 100 YPG this season, which will be useful in stopping Boise State’s Heisman finalist offensive weapon RB Ashton Jeanty. But this comes with a disclaimer as Jeanty was able to rush for 192 yards and 3 TDs against a stronger Oregon team. He’s just unstoppable as he accounts for over 40% of Boise State’s total offense. Coming off a bye, Boise State will be better rested than Penn State, so I’m taking Boise State to pull off the upset.
33-29 Boise State.
Quarterfinals: Texas vs. Oregon (Orange Bowl)
Coming off a game where ASU pounded the rock as hard as possible, Texas will be hurting the Orange Bowl. Not only that, but their relatively easy regular season schedule hasn’t well prepared them for a postseason matchup with a strong Oregon team. Oregon just has to do what they’ve been doing and exploit a tired Longhorns squad.
27-16 Oregon.
Quarterfinals: Boise State vs. Georgia
This matchup will be very interesting and the outcome will partially depend on if Carson Beck is back from injury. If he is, Boise State wins big with Beck holding back the Bulldogs’ offense. If he is still sitting out with injury, Georgia will have a better chance to win, but still won’t. Georgia has been shaky at times this year, and this game is where that will be exposed.
24-17 Boise State.
Championship: Boise State vs. Oregon
THIS NATTY WOULD BE ABSOLUTE CINEMA. A rematch of an early season matchup in which Boise State was narrowly defeated by the Ducks at Oregon. But, it’s hard to beat a good team twice. Boise State has gotten better as the season has progressed, and the Oregon run defense has grown stagnant. Ashton Jeanty goes for 350 yards and 4 TDs, breaks the all-time rushing record, and secures some hardware in a major victory for Group of 5 schools nationwide.
41-40 Boise State.
